Hendrix's Eccentric Commentary

6/20/25

As the United States decide whether or not to go to war with Iran, there is much discussion as to whether there should be an attempt at “regime change.”  (This discussion has gone on in Israel as well.). This sounds attractive, the current regime in Iran is unpopular both internationally and at home, and has generally been seen as both dangerous and destabilizing.

The problem is that the unspoken assumption behind calls for “regime change” is that the next regime will be a better one.  This seems questionable.  We might get a better regime, but it seems equally possible that we might see an even worse one perhaps one full of Islamic hardliners.  Even more possible would be complete chaos which would be disastrous for Iran and dangerous to its neighbors in the Middle East.

More broadly in any attempt at regime change there is ample room for both Murphy and the law of unintended consequences.