Hendrix's Eccentric Commentary

3/30/2026

I wrote this three days ago about the state of the war in Iran and thought I would post it here and see if anyone wishes to comment.

It appears to me that we have backed ourselves into a corner where the question has become: are there any better alternatives than trying to open the Strait of Hormuz by force? We seem to be in a can’t win, can’t lose, can’t quit, situation, with no good options available

Oversimplifying, we cannot force a clearcut victory, such as regime change, seizing the nuclear material, or even getting credible pledges of change behavior from the Iranian government, without a major escalation of the war that would almost certainly involve major ground combat with significant casualties, and essentially rolling tanks through Tehran followed by a significant period of occupation. To do this, would probably be politically unviable in the United States, and we would be acting without any significant support from allies. Any attempt to go for a win would, therefore, probably be iffy, and even if successful would come at a big price in blood, treasure, and domestic political turmoil.

Conversely, we have created a situation where we seem to have actually empowered Iran, allowing them to demonstrate resolve in facing down the United States and Israel, show that they can still strike their enemies, and most importantly demonstrate to the world that they can close the Strait of Hormuz. This can only be called a defeat and would so be perceived by the world. In short, the United States cannot easily swallow such a blatant loss.

Finally, however, we cannot just declare victory and leave without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. To do this would do too much damage to our economy as well as the world’s economy, and perhaps even more importantly, would torch the rest of our already tattered credibility with the world. I simply don’t think the world will accept the United States creating a mess on this scale and walking away from it. Perhaps Trump is prepared to do so, but that would turn a disaster into a catastrophe. In short, I don’t see quitting as an option either.

So to my mind, we can’t win, we can’t lose, and we can’t quit, but we have to choose one. So which one will Trump choose? I’m betting he’ll choose option one. Quagmire here we come.